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STF will analyze tax actions with a billion-dollar impact on the Union in 2025

Analyze tax actions Among the topics are the exclusion of ISS from the PIS/Cofins base and the deduction of education expenses from Income Tax, with direct repercussions on public coffers.

In 2025, the STF’s judgment agenda is full of tax discussions that could generate a significant financial impact on the Union’s coffers.

Two cases stand out as “child theses”

the judgment that determined the exclusion of ICMS from the PIS/Cofins calculation basis, known as the “thesis of the century” (RE 574,706).

This concerns the exclusion of ISS from the gambling database calculation of PIS/Cofins (topic 118) and the exclusion of PIS and Cofins from their own calculation bases (topic 1,067). analyze tax actions Together, these issues represent an estimated impact of R$101.1 billion for the Union, according to data from the 2025 budget.

Exclusion of ISS

In the Supreme Court, taxpayers defend the exclusion arguing that the ISS does not constitute revenue or income, but merely a transfer to the tax authorities.

The Union, on the other hand. Maintains that today’s message: be relevant the tax is part of the amount received in transactions and warns of the negative fiscal impact of this exclusion. The trial, initially tied in the virtual plenary. Was restarted in the physical. Plenary after a request for a highlight by Minister Luiz Fux.

So far, the score is 4 to 2 for exclusion, but the analysis has been suspended with no new date set for resumption.

Case: RE 592.616

Exclusion of PIS and Cofins from its own base

A company from Santa Catarina appealed to phone number list the STF against a decision by the TRF of the 4th region that rejected the request to exclude PIS and Cofins from the calculation of its gross revenue, the basis for social contributions.

The company argues that these taxes do not constitute revenue or income under private law.

The rapporteur, Minister Dias Toffoli. Highlighted that the matter, already recognized as having general repercussions. Will be analyzed because it goes beyond the interests of the parties involved.

Case: RE 1,233,096

PIS/Cofins on imports

Another notable judgment is the one that analyze. Tax actions discusses the need for a supplementary law for the collection of PIS and Cofins on imports (topic 79). Currently. The collection is regulated by ordinary law 10.865/04.

If the STF understands that the rule is not sufficient. The expected impact is R$325 billion. making this the case with the greatest economic repercussion for the Federal government.

Case: RE 565.886

Deduction of education expenses

There is also a lawsuit challenging the limits on deducting education expenses from income tax. If the decision is favorable to taxpayers, it could result in losses of R$115 billion for the federal government.

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